Recently I read “Zero to One,” by Peter Thiel,
the co-founder of PayPal. The gist of his book
describes how today’s most successful organizations
think and plan for the future in a rapidly
changing world. One particular section I found interesting
was Thiel’s contention that the world’s
population can be grouped into four points of
view.
The first group is the indefinite pessimists. These
people are pessimistic about the future but have
no idea when the bad ending will come, so in the
meantime they figure, “Why not kick back and
have a good time!” Thiel says this describes many
Europeans today.
Next are the definite pessimists. These people
are also pessimistic about the future and are
convinced the grimness will continue to worsen
significantly in their lifetime. As a result, they
save as much money as they can and hope it’s
enough to outlast the bad times. Thiel says this
describes many of the Chinese today.
The third group is the definite optimists. Thiel
says this was American’s viewpoint from the 17th
Century up until the 1960s. Definite optimists
are serious about their future – they make plans
and they believe they’re capable of influencing
events occurring around them. This mindset, he
contends, is what allowed American engineers,
soldiers, scientists, doctors and businessmen
to conquer disease, go to the moon, win wars,
create innovative products and empower others
to do the same.
The last group is the indefinite optimists, which
Thiel says describes most Americans today. We
believe the future will be better – we’re just not
sure how. As a result, we don’t make any specific
plans.
If we’re able to make a bit of money, we don’t
know what to do with it, so we give it to a bank,
which in turn, doesn’t know what to do with it, so
the bank gives it to institutional investors. Likewise,
they don’t know what to do with it, so they
spread it out amongst a bunch of companies, and
the whole process repeats itself.
The point is, Thiel says, is that because we have
almost unlimited options on what to do with the
money, having the money becomes more important
than anything we can do with the money.
Thus, making the money is an end in itself rather
than a means to accomplish other goals.
That’s a lot to think about, but it made me wonder
about the mindset of people within our
organization...
When you think about the future of health
care, our organization and your role within
our organization, what are you optimistic
or pessimistic about? Why? Which of these
four groups resonates most with you? I’m
interested in your thoughts. Please email
me at alan.scarrow@mercy.net.
